Quality or complexion? Experience and skin tone as determinants of electoral success in Mexico

Does skin color significantly influence electoral outcomes in Mexico? Departing from traditional theoretical determinants of electoral success (i.e., partisanship and candidate’s quality), recent research suggests that skin color discrimination –pervasive in virtually all spheres of life in Mexico– translates over into electoral politics, hindering the probabilities dark-skinned candidates have of winning. Building on these trailblazing studies, this article examines the results of the 2024 Mexican General Election to replicate the analysis with completely transparent methods, fully available data and incorporating most, if not all, relevant control variables (including machine- and human-coded skin tone measures, three different experience variables, along with sex, age, education, party and state). Our results suggest that quality, rather than complexion, is the best predictor for electoral success. We conclude that, rather than disproving its existence, our findings reveal that electoral contests are not the best site to test the political salience of skin tone.